Decision Analysis of Smoke Detector Laws
D. Jensen, A. Tome, and W. Darby, "Applying Decision Analysis
to Determine the Effect of Smoke Detector Laws on Fire Loss in
the United States," Risk Analysis, 9(1):79-89, March 1989.
- Abstract
- Decision analysis is used to examine whether residential smoke
detectors should be required by law. Statistics pertaining to
fire incidence, fire death, smoke efficacy, and the consequences
of fire are examined for accuracy and availability and combined
in a decision model. A sensitivity analysis is performed on the
model inputs. Included in the analysis is the idea that homes
with detectors may have lower death rates due to the characteristics
of those who purchase detectors rather than the detectors themselves.
Results from the base case estimate show an expected cost of $65,000
per life saved when a law is enacted. This value lies well below
the value implied by spending on other public safety programs.
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